Welcome to the Sensemaking and Forecasting Methods Reading Room
Research Papers
- Critical Thinking in Intelligence Analysis
- Curing Analytic Pathologies
- Anticipating Rate Events
- Forecasting Disruptive Technologies
- Postmodern Strategic Warning
- Limits to Prediction
- Chaotic Dynamics in Multiplayer Games
- Why Intelligence Failures are Inevitable
- Strategy Shocks from Unknown Unknowns
- What We Can Learn From History
- Critical Junctures in History
- Historical Contingency and Necessity
- Natural Science and Big History
- Beyond Big Data
- Understanding and Predicting Uncertainty Shocks
- 20th Century Political/Economic Surprises
- 20th Century Wrong Assumptions by Decade
Recommended Books
- Superforecasting, by Tetlock and Gardner
- Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman
- Seeing What Others Don't, by Gary Klein
- Models. Behaving. Badly., by Emanuel Derman
- Forewarned, by Paul Goodwin
- Warnings, by Clarke and Eddy
- The Signal and The Noise, by Nate Silver
- Think Twice, by Michael Mauboussin
- The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect, by Judea Pearl
- The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You, by Scott Page
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