Welcome to The Retired Investor

Invest Wisely…Get an Informed Second Opinion

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In December 2019, we published "What Do We Know About Escaping the Persistent Deflation Regime?"
In light of the high uncertainty surrounding the economic consequences of COVID-19, we are making it available for free.


"Will we outlive our savings?" "Will we be able to leave a bequest to others?"
In today's post-COVID world, these questions are more important than ever.

Index Investor LLC has relaunched the Retired Investor to help reduce your financial uncertainty and anxiety.


Since 1997, our purpose at Index Investor LLC has been to help investors, corporate, and government leaders better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging macro threats.


The mathematical logic behind our focus is clear: When seeking to achieve long term portfolio goals, avoiding large losses is far more important that reaching for the last few basis points of upside gain. Consider an investor who start with $1,000, earns 20% in year one ($1,200), then loses 20% in year two ($960). In year 3, they need to earn 25% to get back to $1,200.

For 23 years, we've made sense of global macro uncertainties, and provided subscribers with advance warning of the
2008, 2000 and 2020 financial crises, to help them avoid portfolio losses and the painful regrets they cause

The free section of this site contains a wealth of information, including our
core investment beliefs, an overview of retired investing, how to quantify your portfolio goals, and reviews of asset allocation, portfolio construction, and risk management.

You can also see the
results of our model Retired Investor portfolios between 2003 and 2019.

We published Retired Investor from 2004 to 2011. All our back issues are here. Back issues of the Index Investor are here. More information about the history of Index Investor and Retired Investor can be found
here. The main difference between Retired Investor and Index Investor is that the latter comes with monthly updates and cumulative access to our Evidence Files, where we collect and synthesize high value information (threat indicators and surprises) in the areas of technology, health and disease, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, and politics.

We also publish The Index Investor, which provides detailed global macro research and asset allocation analysis. Index Investor LLC is affiliated with
Britten Coyne Partners, which provides strategic risk related consulting services to management teams and boards, and the Strategic Risk Institute LLC, which provides online and in-person education offerings leading to a Certificate in Strategic Risk Governance and Management.

Here's what one subscriber to the Index Investor recently wrote to us: "I am delighted to get your analysis. We get everything from Wall Street, and they all seem to be saying the same thing. Your take is greatly appreciated." Another said "your research is unique. There's nothing else like this out there."

For only $149 a year, here's what you'll get in each monthly issue of the Retired Investor:


(1) Narrative forecasts and quantitative probability estimates for macro system and financial market regime changes over the next 12 and 36 months, and their implications for portfolio asset allocation.

(2) Estimated asset class over/under valuations and updated market stress indicators (e.g., levels of uncertainty, herding, liquidity, and credit risk.

(3) A
feature article providing an in-depth analysis of either a key macro-uncertainty (e.g., how close the system is to one or more critical thresholds) or an aspect of making good investment decisions in the face of complexity and uncertainty.

(4) In between monthly publications, we publish flash updates — on our
blog, on our LinkedIn page, via email, and via our Twitter @indexllc — if and when we obtain high value information that results in a substantial change to a forecast probability.

You can
download a free sample copy of a recent issue to get a better understanding of what we provide subscribers each month.

In our free
Research Library you can browse our curated content on a wide range of issues affecting medium and long-term asset class valuations, including technological, environmental, economic, national security, social, demographic, political, and financial market trends and uncertainties, as well as potential "grey swan" wildcards like infectious disease, cyber, and large-scale electromagnetic events.


Successful investing is ultimately based on accurate forecasting. Here's a brief description of our methodology:

Compared to new quantitative data, new qualitative data diffuses more slowly across market participants, and is only gradually incorporated into asset prices. This time delay, plus the accuracy of their mental models, enables investors to avoid large losses by taking action before the market's dominant narrative changes.

We focus on providing insights about the evolving dynamics of the global macro system and the emergent threats they produce
that lie beyond the detection horizon and analytical capabilities of quantitative algorithmic methods. We then translate these into probability forecasts for different macro regimes, and use them to adjust our model portfolio's asset allocation. That's our edge — and potentially yours too, if you subscribe.

Specifically, using a method called Multipath Analysis we collect and synthesize high value information (threat indicators and surprises) in the areas of technology, health and disease, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, and politics. Their complex interaction over time produces the effects we later observe in the form of investor beliefs and behavior, from which emerge financial market valuations, volumes, and returns.
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Rather than statistical and machine learning, our approach more closely resembles estimative intelligence analysis, which employs a combination of bottom-up and top-down sensemaking processes. These were described in Pirolli and Card's classic article, "
The Sensemaking Process and Leverage Points for Analyst Technology”, which includes this detailed graphic:

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Our forecasting process also draws on lessons
Tom Coyne learned from spending four years as a member of the Good Judgment Project team, which won the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity’s forecasting tournament with results that were more than 50% more accurate than the tournament's control group of professional intelligence analysts (the team's experience is described in Professor Philip Tetlock's book, Superforecasting").

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