Welcome to The Retired Investor
Invest Wisely…Get an Informed Second Opinion
In December 2019, we published "What Do We Know About Escaping the Persistent Deflation Regime?"
In light of the high uncertainty surrounding the economic consequences of COVID-19, we are making it available for free.
Since 1997, our purpose at Index Investor LLC has been to help investors, corporate, and government leaders better anticipate, more accurately assess, and adapt in time to emerging macro threats.
The mathematical logic behind our focus is clear: When seeking to achieve long term portfolio goals, avoiding large losses is far more important that reaching for the last few basis points of upside gain. Consider an investor who start with $1,000, earns 20% in year one ($1,200), then loses 20% in year two ($960). In year 3, they need to earn 25% to get back to $1,200.
For 23 years, we've made sense of global macro uncertainties, and provided subscribers with advance warning of the 2008, 2000 and 2020 financial crises, to help them avoid portfolio losses and the painful regrets they cause
The free section of this site contains a wealth of information, including our core investment beliefs, an overview of retired investing, how to quantify your portfolio goals, and reviews of asset allocation, portfolio construction, and risk management.
You can also see the results of our model Retired Investor portfolios between 2003 and 2019.
We published Retired Investor from 2004 to 2011. All our back issues are here. Back issues of the Index Investor are here. More information about the history of Index Investor and Retired Investor can be found here. The main difference between Retired Investor and Index Investor is that the latter comes with monthly updates and cumulative access to our Evidence Files, where we collect and synthesize high value information (threat indicators and surprises) in the areas of technology, health and disease, energy and the environment, the economy, national security, society, and politics.
We also publish The Index Investor, which provides detailed global macro research and asset allocation analysis. Index Investor LLC is affiliated with Britten Coyne Partners, which provides strategic risk related consulting services to management teams and boards, and the Strategic Risk Institute LLC, which provides online and in-person education offerings leading to a Certificate in Strategic Risk Governance and Management.
Here's what one subscriber to the Index Investor recently wrote to us: "I am delighted to get your analysis. We get everything from Wall Street, and they all seem to be saying the same thing. Your take is greatly appreciated." Another said "your research is unique. There's nothing else like this out there."
For only $149 a year, here's what you'll get in each monthly issue of the Retired Investor:
(1) Narrative forecasts and quantitative probability estimates for macro system and financial market regime changes over the next 12 and 36 months, and their implications for portfolio asset allocation.
(2) Estimated asset class over/under valuations and updated market stress indicators (e.g., levels of uncertainty, herding, liquidity, and credit risk.
(3) A feature article providing an in-depth analysis of either a key macro-uncertainty (e.g., how close the system is to one or more critical thresholds) or an aspect of making good investment decisions in the face of complexity and uncertainty.
(4) In between monthly publications, we publish flash updates — on our blog, on our LinkedIn page, via email, and via our Twitter @indexllc — if and when we obtain high value information that results in a substantial change to a forecast probability.
You can download a free sample copy of a recent issue to get a better understanding of what we provide subscribers each month.
In our free Research Library you can browse our curated content on a wide range of issues affecting medium and long-term asset class valuations, including technological, environmental, economic, national security, social, demographic, political, and financial market trends and uncertainties, as well as potential "grey swan" wildcards like infectious disease, cyber, and large-scale electromagnetic events.